Black Friday has undergone a dramatic transformation since its chaotic in-store origins in the 1960s. Once synonymous with one-day-only doorbuster deals and frenzied shopping, the event is now a weeks-long digital phenomenon, shaped by evolving consumer behavior, economic pressures, and innovative retailer strategies, not to mention some potential trust issues with consumers. Here’s a comprehensive look at how Brands and consumers are navigating Black Friday 2024.

Consumer Behavior: What’s Changing?

What we know as Black Friday is a Fading Fad

Black Friday is transforming into a multi-week affair, diluting the exclusivity of deals and the urgency to shop on a single day. Amazon, Walmart, and Target began their discounts weeks in advance, reshaping the shopping season to accommodate a broader audience​. But, if everyone is special, then no one is. This is further supported by a recent Forbes report that reveals that many shoppers feel Black Friday "no longer means anything," signaling a growing fatigue with the over-saturation of deals.

Despite easing inflation, economic uncertainty has made consumers more budget-conscious. Many are prioritizing essential items over discretionary purchases, a sentiment that has affected traditional Black Friday sales. The National Retail Federation forecasts holiday sales to approach $1 trillion, but with the slowest growth rate since 2018. Some speculate that the early sales are eating the potential gain from a Black Friday specific sale. 

The Growing Temptation of Online Shopping

In 2023, the National Retail Federation reported that “59 million consumers shopped in stores on the Saturday after Thanksgiving, down almost 7% from 63.4 million last year.”

“Online shopping is expected to increase 8-9% YoY in 2024, reaching around $296 billion in sales,” according to Queue-it’s 2024 predictions. Similarly, “consumers are increasingly concerned that in-store prices are not competitive with online prices” so 20% of consumers say they’ll increase their online spend in 2024.

With online dominating, and social media platforms like TikTok playing a significant role in consumer purchasing decisions, less people are rushing to physical stores. Instead, they are expecting customized, personal, and speedy virtual shopping experiences. 

How Retailers Are Adapting

Elongated Promotions for Increased Opportunities

Even though the growth rate is slow and this effort may subdue sales, retailers now run "Black Friday Week" or even month-long promotions to engage shoppers early and reach broader audiences. This tactic, although questionable, is beneficial since it helps manage inventory and avoid last-minute rushes, creating satisfied and returning customers. After 2020 and years of inventory back-ups, being prepared for orders may be the best move retailers can make to retain customer loyalty. 

Investments in Online Shopping

Brands are focusing on seamless user experiences, with personalized recommendations and early access deals. Retailers like Amazon continue to innovate with features like one-click checkout to capitalize on the convenience consumers demand.

Focus on Value and Experiences

Since Black Friday is saturated to the point where Brands are blending together, beyond discounts, Brands that offer exclusivity like early access for loyalty members, gamified experiences, and flash sales to keep customers engaged and more likely to purchase. Sephora’s loyalty programs exemplify this trend, pairing deals with exclusive member benefits.

Tips for Consumers and Marketers

For Consumers:

1. Plan Ahead: Take advantage of extended sales periods to research and budget accordingly. Keep items in your cart to optimize the best deal and to avoid getting taken advantage of by price surges. 

2. Verify Deals: Use tools like CamelCamelCamel to track price histories and avoid fake discounts.

3. Shop Securely: Stick to reputable retailers and avoid deals that seem too good to be true.

For Marketers:

1. Leverage Personalization: Use consumer data to tailor deals and experiences. Personalized offers have been shown to increase conversions by 20% .

2. Create Urgency: Flash sales and limited-time offers tap into the fear of missing out, driving quick action.

3. Highlight Value: Emphasize tangible benefits like free shipping, loyalty perks, and eco-friendly practices to win trust since consumers are more cautious about spending.

Black Friday 2024 reflects a retail landscape in transition. The rise of online shopping, economic challenges, and changing consumer values are reshaping this retail season into an innovative opportunity. For Brands, the key to success lies in understanding these shifts and delivering value, convenience, and authenticity, while making sure not to overwhelm their audience by targeting specifically instead of broadly. For consumers, navigating the endless deals means staying informed, skeptical, and strategic. As Black Friday continues to evolve, its ability to adapt to modern expectations will determine its enduring relevance in the holiday shopping season as long as Brands remain honest and eager.